POPCOM: Rise in mortality, drop in birth rates caused by COVID-19 and its impact on local health system Strongly debunks ‘depopulation thru vaccination’ theories

More than 1 in 10 deaths in the country are directly attributable to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has resulted in 105,425 fatalities between April 2020 and October 2021. This was pointed out by the Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM), effectively debunking certain speculations that the increasing mortality rates in the country were due to the vaccination program launched in March 2021. Loss of lives from COVID-19 now comprise 11.04% of all deaths in the country in the same period, making it the second-leading cause of registered deaths since the virus started to spread exponentially in March 2020. “The increase in deaths compared to previous years has been noted since July 2020. Comparing the first six months of 2021 to the same period of 2020, there was an increase of 88,191 deaths. One can attribute over half of that, or 51%, to COVID-19, and the rest to ischemic heart disease, hypertensive disease and other illnesses—the cases which also went up in that time frame,” asserted POPCOM’s executive director Juan Antonio Perez III, MD, MPH. Dr. Perez also pointed out that claims by a few advocates against COVID-19 vaccinations of “depopulating” of the country were based on inaccurate assumptions and analysis of available data. Depopulation, he said, pertains to the decrease of population living in an area represented by a negative total population change. The 2020 Population and Housing Census in the Philippines noted a population growth rate of 1.63 percent annually, with about 1.6 million Filipinos added per year by calculating for registered births minus deaths; and accounting for migration, which is usually a "minus" in the Philippines. The interplay of the recent number of births and deaths still contributes to a net positive increase in the total population of the country. Hence, depopulation, he said, is “nowhere in the near future for the Philippines.” Moreover, the assumption of a depopulation claim was based on the increasing number of deaths over births in a one-month period alone: in September 2021. However, from January 2021 to October 2021, there were 267,444 more births than deaths. Correct reasons: POPCOM earlier noted that the recent decline in births leading to lower natural increase in population in the last two years was mainly due to three factors: (1) women and couples opting to delay having children, (2) lower number of marriages and family formation in general, and (3) increasing use of modern family planning methods. The decline in childbirths started in December 2020, when they went down to 115,997, then declined further in succeeding months in 2021, with the lowest births seen in February 2021 at 82,535. This was also noted well before the March 2021 rollout of vaccinations for COVID-19. Nonetheless, the POPCOM chief cautioned the public and policymakers that these demographic events during the pandemic are variations in the normal demographic patterns worldwide because of COVID-19’s direct impact on mortality and on fertility behaviors of couples, particularly those previously mentioned. As such, it is anticipated that demographic behaviors and outcomes may return to their natural patterns once pandemic factors are controlled. The recent increase in the number of deaths is mainly attributable to COVID-19 itself, which is contributing to over half of the excess mortality seen in the last two years. Dr. Perez observed: “Aside from COVID-19, increasing mortalities due to ischemic heart disease and hypertension may be traced to the increased vulnerability of sick members of the population vis-à-vis their morbid conditions. We noted decreased attendances in health centers and doctors’ clinics caused by hesitancy among patients to go to medical facilities which were swamped with COVID-19 cases; increasing barriers to care as one has to obtain a schedule to see a physician; as well as limitations on the side of health providers who were unavailable because of escalating caseloads and illnesses.” Contradicting theory: POPCOM sought to debunk speculations contained in online articles and Facebook forums pointing to a “certain intervention” that started in March 2021. They alluded to the ongoing national vaccination drive, which has allegedly resulted in a drastic hike in mortality while causing a decline in the number of births in the country, as they cited figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) and the Department of Health (DOH) websites. Points raised included “excess mortality [showing] big time in the first half of 2021,” “a big drop in the number of births in 2020,” and “an even bigger decline in births in January [to March 2021 over the] same months in 2020 and 2019.” Likewise, the assertions involved “sudden increases in mortality in all regions…far above historical maximum year-on-year changes of 5 percent,” while “registered birth decreases [were] also far above historical maximum year-on-year changes of 2.5 percent.” They also mentioned “sudden and unnatural increase in deaths seen in NCR [National Capital Region],” and a “drop in registered births…in September 2021 in some provinces.” Dr. Perez finds the claims made as “completely without basis;” that increased mortality and “depopulation” were not due to vaccinations, since the upward movement was noted until nine months before inoculations started in March 2021, and that the decline in births was already present four months prior: “We have anticipated these demographic changes in late 2020. Deaths and births, directly or indirectly, are attributable to the impact of the coronavirus on the health system and economy; but definitely, not due to vaccinations.” The agency also noted that local governments in charge of health systems should maintain two tracks of health care to maintain population health: one for COVID-19 and influenza like-illnesses, and another for overall health. “DOH and other agencies, including the National Economic and Development Authority, POPCOM, Department of Information and Communications Technology, as well as the Department of the Interior and Local Government issued the Joint Memorandum Circular 2020-01 in mid-2020 which called on LGUs to organize composite teams that will assess the pandemic’s impact at the community level. At this time when COVID-19 is casting a wide net in our communities, mayors and governors must address the problems of the ‘unwell’ among the population, both due to COVID-19 and its related diseases,” Dr. Perez emphasized. The undersecretary for population and development—in his capacity as a medical doctor and public-health professional—said “vaccines are products of scientific and medical endeavors primarily designed to protect and uphold life, and not cause it harm. Creating them for a purpose other than the good of mankind, as alleged, would be unthinkable and utterly inhumane.” ###

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