US commander says window for possible Taiwan attack ‘unpredictable’

Kyodo News WASHINGTON – The commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet said Monday the time frame of China's possible attempt to take Taiwan by force was unpredictable, with Beijing apparently learning from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Adm. Samuel Paparo also called for the importance of "constant vigilance," in what appears to be remarks intended to play down an assessment voiced last year by then Indo-Pacific Command chief Philip Davidson that China could invade Taiwan "in the next six years." "I think the window of a potential unification by force is highly, highly unpredictable," Paparo told a group of reporters in Washington, while noting that the so-called Davidson window is "actually based on open source speeches" made by Chinese leaders. Noting the "many complex factors" that would play into Beijing's decision to attempt to unify with the self-ruled democratic island by force, including its examination of the Ukraine crisis, the commander said: "I think, to anybody that for somehow believes that we can take a breath or relax or relent on our own commitment to a 'free and open Indo-Pacific'...I would not support that because nature is so unpredictable." Taiwan and mainland China have been separately governed since they split as a result of a civil war in 1949. Beijing, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, has since endeavored to bring the island back into its fold. As the Ukraine crisis has unfolded, attention has also grown on Taiwan, a potential military flashpoint that could draw the United States into conflict with China and could also pose serious security challenges to Japan, a close U.S. ally. Taiwan is located just 170 kilometers away from the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. The islets are also claimed by China. As for the cooperation between the United States and Japan in addressing regional security situations, the commander reassured that he has "never seen greater convergence" within the bilateral alliance in terms of realizing the U.S. strategy for the Indo-Pacific that pursues enhanced deterrence against potential aggression in the region that is facing China's assertiveness. On North Korea, he expressed his deep concern over the continuing test-firing of its weapons, which included an intercontinental ballistic missile launch on March 24. He said the United States is "cultivating some options" to demonstrate U.S. commitment to the security of South Korea in response to North Korea's provocative behavior, but did not elaborate. Amid Pyongyang's increased pace and scale of ballistic missile launches, the U.S. military said in mid-March that it had conducted an exercise involving fighter jets launched from an aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea.